MosoFin · 13-week cash flow forecast, in plain words

Will I make payroll in 6 weeks?

Your profit report cannot answer that question. Only a week-by-week count of the cash in your bank can. This skill builds that count for the next 13 weeks: money in, money out, and the balance at the end of each week.

The 20-second version

You give it your bank balances, your payroll dates, your loan and tax dates, and your cash floor. It reads your open invoices and bills. It measures how late each customer really pays. It then shows the balance for each of 13 weeks, the lowest point, and the week that breaks your floor. It proposes what you could move. It never moves anything itself.

The answer, week by week

13 weeks of Northbrook Trading's cash, one chain

Northbrook Trading starts its forecast on Monday 6 October. Its bank has $182,400 that it can spend: $151,900 in the operating account and $30,500 in savings. A tax reserve account holds $24,000 more. The skill leaves that account out, because the owner set that money aside and cannot spend it this week. Northbrook's lender requires a cash balance of at least $150,000 at all times. That promise to a lender is a covenant. The $150,000 is the floor.

Each week has one piece of arithmetic. Week 1 opens at $182,400. Customers pay $46,200. Northbrook pays out $38,500. The week closes at 182,400 + 46,200 − 38,500 = $190,100. Week 2 opens at $190,100. The skill runs this chain across all 13 weeks. The headroom is the closing balance minus the floor: 190,100 − 150,000 = $40,100 in week 1.

Week	Opens with	Cash in	Cash out	Closes with	Headroom
Week 1	182,400	+ 46,200	− 38,500	190,100	40,100
Week 2	190,100	+ 31,800	− 61,300	160,600	10,600
Week 3	160,600	+ 52,900	− 33,200	180,300	30,300
Week 4	180,300	+ 38,400	− 28,900	189,800	39,800
Week 5	189,800	+ 47,100	− 61,300	175,600	25,600
Week 6	175,600	+ 44,800	− 33,200	187,200	37,200
Week 7	187,200	+ 40,200	− 96,400	131,000	−19,000
Week 8	131,000	+ 71,500	− 28,900	173,600	23,600
Week 9	173,600	+ 39,600	− 61,300	151,900	1,900
Week 10	151,900	+ 52,300	− 33,200	171,000	21,000
Week 11	171,000	+ 41,900	− 28,900	184,000	34,000
Week 12	184,000	+ 38,700	− 61,300	161,400	11,400
Week 13	161,400	+ 49,800	− 33,200	178,000	28,000
13 weeks	182,400	+ 595,200	− 599,600	178,000	28,000

Example figures for a made-up company, in dollars. Each week opens with the previous week's closing balance. Headroom is the closing balance minus the $150,000 floor. Over 13 weeks, $595,200 comes in and $599,600 goes out, so the balance ends $4,400 lower than it started: 182,400 + 595,200 − 599,600 = 178,000.

The same 13 closing balances as bars. The red bar is week 7. It is the lowest point of the forecast, and the skill calls it the single most important number in the output.

The week that breaks the floor

Week 7: payroll, the tax deposit and the insurance land together

Northbrook pays net wages of $28,900 on the 15th and on the last day of each month. The skill asks for those dates, because no accounting system holds a payroll calendar. On the Wednesday after each payday, Northbrook must send $9,300 of payroll taxes to the IRS. The skill lists that as a separate outflow in a later week, because it is easy to forget. One year ago, Northbrook paid $21,000 for its annual insurance. The skill scans last year's bank activity for large one-off payments and looks for an anniversary that falls inside the 13 weeks. This one does, in week 7.

Week 7 as forecast

Three large payments in one week, against normal receipts

Opens with$187,200

Customers pay+ 40,200

Net payroll− 28,900

Payroll tax deposit− 9,300

Insurance renewal− 21,000

Other bills− 37,200

Closes with$131,000

Cash out is 28,900 + 9,300 + 21,000 + 37,200 = $96,400. The week closes at 187,200 + 40,200 − 96,400 = $131,000. That is $19,000 below the $150,000 floor. Payroll is paid in full, because $131,000 is well above zero. The covenant is broken.

The levers the skill proposes

Each one is a proposal for a person. The skill does none of them.

Ask Meridian Foods to pay its $71,500 five days early$202,500

Draw $19,000 on the credit line for one week$150,000

Defer the software renewal and the marketing spend$145,600

Meridian's $71,500 is due in week 8. Five days earlier, it lands in week 7: 131,000 + 71,500 = $202,500. The deferral moves 6,400 + 8,200 = $14,600, so the week closes at $145,600, still $4,400 below the floor. That lever is not enough on its own.

Two payments never appear on the lever list. The skill does not propose a late payroll. State law sets how often you must pay wages, and many states require employers to name the paydays in advance³. The skill does not propose a late tax deposit either. The IRS sets the deposit date from your payday, and the deposit is due days after it, not weeks². The skill's own rule says that payroll and tax remittances are not deferrable, so other payments are the flex.

A lender can treat a broken covenant as a default. So the skill always says whether the floor is a covenant or a target that you set for yourself. The consequences differ. The skill asks, and it never assumes a floor.

What it catches

Three things an owner misses without a weekly view

The lumpy week

A healthy quarter can still hold one bad week

Across 13 weeks, Northbrook's cash falls by only $4,400. A monthly view shows a comfortable business. The weekly chain shows week 7 at $131,000. The skill flags every week below the floor, every week below zero, and the lowest point with its week number. In a survey of 7,653 small employer firms, 56% named paying operating expenses such as payroll and rent as a financial challenge¹.

The customer who pays late

Harbor Retail's $24,000 arrives in week 5, not week 2

Harbor Retail owes $24,000, due on 17 October, which is week 2. Your ageing report only says that the invoice is not yet due⁸. The skill reads Harbor's last 9 invoices and the dates the payments arrived. Harbor paid them 16 days after the due date on average, with a spread of 4 days. So the skill places the $24,000 about 2 November, which lands in week 5. It shows the sample size of 9, because a pattern from two invoices is not a pattern. The skill never forecasts collection on the due date when it can read payment history.

Timing is about the bank, and the bank has its own delays. An ACH payment settles in at most two banking days, and most settle in one day or less⁴. A local cheque must be available by the second business day after you deposit it⁵. The skill places each receipt in the week the money reaches the bank.

The tax deposit after the payday

One payday, two outflows, two weeks

Northbrook pays wages on Friday 31 October, in week 4. The $9,300 of payroll taxes on that payday is due the following Wednesday, 5 November, in week 5. Northbrook is a semiweekly depositor. For that schedule, the IRS requires taxes from a Wednesday, Thursday or Friday payday by the next Wednesday². The skill puts the two outflows in two different weeks. A forecast that forgets the second one overstates week 5 by $9,300.

Operating expenses56%Share of 7,653 small employer firms that named paying operating expenses, such as payroll, rent and inventory, as a financial challenge¹

Uneven cash flow51%Share that named uneven cash flow, which includes collecting receivables, as a financial challenge in the same survey¹

Rising costs75%The most common challenge in the survey. A forecast does not cure it, but it shows the week it bites¹

Your accounting software may offer a cash planner. QuickBooks' planner projects 90 days from the history of your connected bank accounts, and it leaves out credit card transactions and transactions entered by hand⁷. This skill works from a different base: your open invoices, your open bills, and the payroll and tax calendar that you give it.

How a run starts

It asks six questions before it reads anything

Use MosoFin for this run, or upload the data yourself?
MosoFin is the connection to your books and the other platforms you link. With it, the skill reads your balances, invoices, bills and payment history from there. Without it, you upload the files and the method stays the same. The skill asks this only if your account has a MosoFin connection.
Which bank accounts count as cash you can spend, and is any cash restricted?
The opening balance starts the whole chain. A deposit you cannot reach this week is not cash you can spend. On the MosoFin path the skill lists your cash accounts by name and you say which ones count. It never assumes an opening balance.
Your payroll calendar: pay dates, net pay, tax deposit dates, benefit dates.
Required. Usually the most certain and the most critical outflow, and the one that must never slip. Your history shows the rhythm. Only you can give the amounts for the weeks ahead.
Loan payments, tax due dates, and any other large one-off payment in the 13 weeks.
Required. These are the lumpy items that break a floor in a single week. The skill also scans last year's cash for large payments whose anniversary falls inside the horizon.
Your minimum cash floor: a covenant or your own preference, and how it defines cash?
Headroom, red flags and runway are all measured against the floor. A covenant breach can make a loan repayable at once. Without a floor, the skill reports the lowest point and the weeks until cash reaches zero, and says that it tested no floor.
Any credit line: its limit, borrowing base and clean-down rules. And the horizon, if not 13 weeks.
An undrawn limit is not the same as money you can draw today. Without a credit line, the skill forecasts without one and says so. It proposes 13 weeks and says that it proposed it.

Then it reads your answers back and waits for your yes:

"Forecasting Northbrook Trading for 13 weeks from Monday 6 October. Opening cash comes from the Operating and Savings accounts, with the tax reserve account excluded, read from your Mosofin connection. The payroll calendar, loan schedule and floor are the ones you gave me. The floor is a covenant at $150,000, cash net of restricted. Shall I go ahead?"

What you need

Connect once, or upload three exports and your calendar

Connected with MosoFin

Say yes, then give it the dates no ledger holds

It reads your opening cash by account
It reads your open invoices and open bills with their due dates
It reads the payment history and measures each customer's days-to-pay
It reads your recurring payments and last year's cash movement
You still give it the payroll calendar, the loan and tax dates, the floor and any credit line, every time

Uploading instead

Bring the balances, the lists and the dates

Opening cash by account at the start date, with restricted accounts marked, typed or CSV, required
Open invoices with dates, due dates and amounts, plus payment history for the last several months, CSV or XLSX, required
Open bills with due dates, plus bill payment history, CSV or XLSX, required
Payroll calendar, loan payments, tax dates, the floor and the credit line, typed in the chat, required
Your bank account activity for the last twelve months, CSV or XLSX, recommended. It shows the recurring and annual payments

What you get back

Seven sheets: the forecast, the alerts, and what could move

The 13-week forecastOpening cash, receipts, payments, net flow, closing cash, the floor and the headroom, for each week and in total.

Collections, customer by customerEach open invoice with its expected week, the customer's measured days-to-pay and the sample size behind it.

Payments, item by itemEach bill and each scheduled payment with its planned week and its priority.

Liquidity alertsWeeks below the floor, the lowest point and its week, the runway, and the draw a credit line would need.

What ifWhat happens when collections slip by the observed spread, when the largest receipt fails, and when a payment moves.

Forecast against actualLast week's forecast beside what really happened, so the forecast improves each week.

Where every number came fromWhich lines it read, which lines you supplied, and which it could not evidence. Payroll, loan, tax and floor lines always show as supplied by you.

It asks whether you want the sheets as an Excel file before it makes one. If you say no, you get the same sheets as tables in the chat. Each week, it can compare last week's forecast with the actual cash, drop week 1 and add a new week 13.

What it never does

Never reads your books without asking. A connected account is not permission.
Never reads anything before you answer the six questions and say yes to the read-back.
Never draws on a credit line, schedules a payment or defers anything. Every lever is a proposal for a person.
Never assumes the opening balance, the floor, the payroll amounts or the company. It leaves restricted cash out of the opening balance, and you say which accounts count.
Never forecasts a payment on the due date when it can read payment history. It measures days-to-pay per customer and shows the sample size.
Never puts payroll or a tax deposit on the lever list. It also never lets a forecast built on test data drive a cash decision.

Words you'll hear

Seven terms, in plain English

Direct method: A forecast of the actual money in and out, rather than one that starts from profit. The international cash flow standard encourages the direct method because it helps to estimate future cash flows⁶.
Runway: How many weeks the cash lasts at the current rate before it reaches zero or the floor.
Floor and covenant: The floor is the balance you must not go below. A covenant is a floor you promised to a lender. A breach can make the loan repayable at once.
Headroom: How far above the floor you are in a week. Week 1 closes at $190,100, so its headroom is $40,100.
Days-to-pay: How long a customer really takes to pay, measured from the due date over several invoices. Harbor Retail's is 16 days, from 9 invoices.
Restricted cash: Cash you cannot freely spend, such as a tax reserve. The skill leaves it out of the opening balance.
Revolver: A credit line you can draw on and repay repeatedly. Its limit is not always the amount you can draw today.

Sources

Where the facts on this page come from

The sources are a Federal Reserve survey and two US government pages on payroll. They also include two pages on how payments reach a bank, an international accounting standard and two Intuit help pages. We found each one on 27 October 2026 in search results. We reviewed each linked source on 27 October 2026; follow the link for the latest wording. What the skill does comes from the skill's own files.

Federal Reserve Banks: 2025 Report on Employer Firms, Small Business Credit SurveyIn the 2024 survey of 7,653 small employer firms, 56% named paying operating expenses such as payroll, rent and inventory as a financial challenge. 51% named uneven cash flow, which includes collecting receivables. Rising costs were the most common challenge, at 75%.
IRS: Publication 15 (Circular E), Employer's Tax GuideA monthly depositor sends employment taxes by the 15th of the next month. A semiweekly depositor sends taxes from a Wednesday, Thursday or Friday payday by the next Wednesday. Taxes from a Saturday to Tuesday payday are due by the next Friday. The schedule depends on the taxes reported in a lookback period: $50,000 or less means monthly, more means semiweekly. $100,000 or more accumulated on one day is due the next business day.
US Department of Labor: State Payday RequirementsState law sets how often an employer must pay wages. California, for example, requires payment at least twice a calendar month on paydays designated in advance.
Nacha: How ACH Payments WorkThe sender of an ACH credit chooses settlement the same day, the next banking day or in two banking days, and no later. Nacha estimates that 80% of ACH payments settle in one banking day or less.
Federal Reserve: Regulation CC, §229.10 Next-day availabilityCash deposited in person and electronic payments must be available by the next business day. Local cheques must be available by the second business day after the deposit.
IFRS Foundation: IAS 7 Statement of Cash FlowsThe direct method reports the major classes of gross cash receipts and gross cash payments. The standard encourages it because it gives information that helps to estimate future cash flows, which the indirect method does not give.
Intuit: Use the cash flow planner in QuickBooks OnlineThe planner forecasts money in and out for the next 90 days from the history of connected bank accounts. It leaves out credit card transactions, transactions entered by hand and multi-currency files. Events you add are hypothetical and do not change the books.
Intuit: Run an accounts receivable aging report in QuickBooks OnlineThe A/R ageing summary shows unpaid balances by how long they are past due, counted from the due date. The periods are such as 1 to 30, 31 to 60, 61 to 90 and over 90 days.

No outside authority backs the 13-week horizon as a default or the days-to-pay method, measured per customer with its sample size. The same is true of the weekly chain, the lever list, the seven sheets and the rule that payroll is never deferred. They are the skill's own rules. Sources 1 to 5, 7 and 8 are US sources. Source 6 is an international standard.

About this skill

This page explains cash-flow-forecast-13-week, from the MosoFin finance skills library, MosoFin/mosofin-finance-skills on GitHub. Read the skill on GitHub → This page describes a rewrite of that skill into the shorter card format. The rewrite is on a branch and is not yet on the main branch. Want the worked examples? Learn it step by step →